Gold Rate today and Gold’s Price Prediction
Our last article on Gold rate today and Gold’s price prediction was in April’21 and since then, it has been a volatile ride for Gold and its investors.
Gold rate today and Gold’s price prediction for near future are:
| Date | Price in INR (MCX) | Price in USD |
| 29 Sep’21 | 46100 | 1754 |
| Date | Price in INR ( MCX ) | Price in USD |
| By Dec’22 | 65000 | 2650 |
Gold today is most undervalued amongst all the financial asset classes and it may go up to its lifetime high by end of 2022.
Weakness in US dollar, no sign of increase in interest rates post-Jackson Hole symposium in Aug’21 and demand for physical gold due to fast approaching festival season in India are all positives for this precious metal.
At the highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium last month, Fed Chair has indicated that any withdrawal of stimulus will be gradual, which is bullish for gold. Though its price movement is not expected to be linear amid the risk-on sentiment in stock markets, we advocate accumulating it at current and lower levels.
The central banks like Russia, China, and other banks are also adding gold to their reserves, which will keep its demand high. ETF buyers are also adding to their gold holdings as an inflation hedge. Global equity markets too are at very high levels and any correction in them will create more demand for this safe-haven asset.
Please find few other key reasons for our above Gold’s price prediction:
- Higher Government Debt across the world – Please find debt of few major countries in the world,
| Country | Debt (in trillions, US$) | % to GDP |
| US | 28 | 107% |
| Japan | 9 | 177% |
| France | 3.2 | 110% |
| Spain | 1.6 | 107% |
| UK | 3 | 98% |
As the size of Fed balance sheet keeps increasing because of debt monetization, it leads to an extended time and era of negative real interest rates which is very bullish for gold prices.
2. Higher Stimulus by central banks since March’20 – It dilutes the value of money and hence positive for asset prices like Gold.
3. Negative Real Yields – Real yields with high inflation and lower interest rates are here to stay and this will drive Gold to new highs. We expect this to continue and have a long term price target of gold closer to INR 250000(Per 10 gram) and $12500 (Per ounce) by 2030. Also US fed chairman, Jeremy Powell has finally admitted on 29 Sep’21 that inflation is not transitory and is expected to stay at elevated levels.
4. Geo Political Risk – This century from 2000 started with dot com bubble burst, 9/11 attacks, Global financial crisis, Covid 19 pandemic, etc. All these scenarios lead to investors and liquidity rush to Gold. The recent incidents of Taliban taking over Afghanistan and AUKUS alliance in between US, UK and Australia will only increase the tension in between world super powers.
Hence, we can conclude that this a good time to be accumulating gold. It has consolidated well enough after a stupendous rise in 2019 and 2020 and is posed to make money again for its investors.